Challenges in Incorporating Environmental Justice Constraints for Capacity Expansion Modeling

Capacity expansion models have proven to be valuable for developing cost-optimized decarbonization pathways for grid systems. While air pollution impacts of these pathways have been investigated, challenges persist in modeling infrastructure and environmental systems together, and nuanced environmental justice dynamics are often neglected. This work attempts to address this gap in the literature by pairing an open-source capacity expansion model with pollutant dispersion modeling tools through an iterative procedure while exploring the challenges inherent to modeling emissions from future facilities. Using California as a case study, decarbonization pathways and proposed natural gas plants' NOx and PM_2.5 emissions are modeled, with a statewide target of zero grid-related CO₂ emissions by 2046. The plant with the greatest environmental justice impacts is then restricted in the next iteration of capacity expansion modeling; an additional exploratory iteration investigates the impacts of restricting the facility with the greatest health burden per TWh generated. While inequities persist in the second iteration under each constraint, this methodology lays a foundation for applying environmental justice constraints in the development of equitable grid decarbonization pathways and highlights potential paths forward for more effective constraints.