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Decision making under extinction risk.

Maximilian Maier1, Adam J L Harris1, David Kellen2

  • 1Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, United Kingdom.

Cognitive Psychology
|June 25, 2025
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People often make decisions with extinction risks, like driving. A new Extinction Gambling Task (EGT) reveals common decision-making flaws such as loss chasing and scope insensitivity.

Keywords:
Computational modellingDecision makingExtinctionExtreme outcomesMixture modellingRisky choice

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Risk Analysis
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Everyday decisions frequently involve irredeemable risks, including existential threats.
  • Research on decision-making under extinction risk is limited despite its practical importance.
  • Existing decision science models may not fully capture the nuances of extinction risk scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To formally understand decision-making under extinction risk.
  • To introduce a novel experimental paradigm, the Extinction Gambling Task (EGT).
  • To compare optimal strategies with human choices in simulated extinction scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Development of the Extinction Gambling Task (EGT).
  • Derivation of optimal strategies for extinction and near-extinction events.
  • Experimental comparison of human choices against derived optimal strategies.
  • Computational modeling to analyze individual decision-making strategies.

Main Results:

  • Participants demonstrated some effective qualitative strategies but exhibited systematic biases.
  • Observed shortcomings include loss chasing, scope insensitivity, and neglect of opportunity costs.
  • Computational models identified individual-level strengths and weaknesses in risk assessment.

Conclusions:

  • The EGT provides a framework for studying decisions under extinction risk.
  • Human decision-making under extinction risk is characterized by specific cognitive biases.
  • Further research is needed to address the complexities of extinction risk decisions.