[Spatial-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Reserves in Wanjiang River Basin with the InVEST-PLUS Model]

Area of Science:

• Ecological modeling
• Environmental science
• Geographic information systems

Context:

• Land use evolution significantly influences ecosystem carbon storage.
• Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in carbon reserves is vital for global emission reduction targets.
• The Wanjiang River Basin's land use dynamics were studied from 2000 to 2020.

Purpose:

• To analyze the spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem carbon storage in the Wanjiang River Basin.
• To predict future carbon storage under various land use scenarios (natural development, urban protection, farmland protection, ecological protection) for 2040.
• To identify the key driving factors of spatial differentiation in carbon storage.

Summary:

• Between 2000 and 2020, land use changes led to a decrease of 2.84×10^6 tons in carbon storage, with increased construction land and decreased cultivated land being key factors.
• Future projections (2040) indicate continued carbon storage decline across all simulated scenarios, with the 'natural development' scenario showing the largest decrease and 'farmland protection' the least.
• Annual average precipitation was identified as the primary driver of spatial carbon storage differentiation, with a synergistic effect between precipitation and vegetation net primary productivity.

Impact:

• Land use planning, particularly protecting ecological land and controlling construction land expansion, is essential for improving carbon reserves.
• Implementing farmland and ecological protection policies can effectively mitigate the reduction of ecosystem carbon reserves.
• Findings provide critical insights for regional sustainable development and climate change mitigation strategies.