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The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050
Bryan Chong1, Jayanth Jayabaskaran1, Silingga Metta Jauhari2
1Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore.
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
|July 16, 2025
Summary
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors like high blood pressure and BMI will see declining age-standardized rates but rising crude burden by 2050. This trend is driven by population growth and aging, despite improved management.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Global Health
Background:
- Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) represent the primary cause of mortality worldwide.
- Understanding epidemiological trends in modifiable risk factors is crucial for developing effective CVD countermeasures.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast geospatial trends of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050.
- Key risk factors include high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index (BMI), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and tobacco use.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.
- Forecasted the burden associated with modifiable cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050.
- Examined trends across GBD super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index, and age groups.
Main Results:
- In 2050, high SBP is projected to contribute the highest age-standardized DALYs (1,694.2 per 100,000 population).
- High low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high BMI, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose follow.
- While age-standardized DALY rates will decrease, crude DALYs are projected to rise, with high SBP and high BMI showing the greatest increases.
Conclusions:
- Projected declines in age-standardized DALYs suggest improved CVD management.
- However, overall crude DALYs for cardiovascular risk factors are expected to increase due to population growth and aging.
- This highlights the ongoing challenge of managing CVD burden globally.
Keywords:
cardiovascular diseasedisability-adjusted life yearsglobal burdenstandard modifiable risk factorsMore Related Videos
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