Enhanced global extreme droughts driven by the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean on decadal timescales

In the 21st century, two record-breaking years of extreme drought coverage swept across the globe. These resulted in billions of agriculture losses and led to hunger and poverty in those developing countries. Recent decadal increasing extreme droughts are closely associated with the decadal modulated oscillation (DMO) signal, majorly in charge by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Meanwhile, the DMO significantly influences global wet-dry variations through phase changes, leading to an increase in the probability of extreme droughts in the positive phase. Composite analysis shows that high probability of extreme drought corresponds to positive anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential height and low-level anticyclonic conditions. Under future climate scenarios, DMO is expected to intensify in most regions, leading to an increased risk of extreme droughts, especially in Australia. As anthropogenic warming intensifies, the coming spatial coverage of extreme droughts will continue creating new records.