A conceptual model to quantify probabilistic dike breach outflow.

Area of Science:

• Hydrology
• Water resource management
• Civil engineering

Background:

• Hydrodynamic models offer accuracy but are computationally intensive for real-time emergency analysis.
• Conceptual models provide faster simulations for dike breach scenarios, balancing speed and accuracy.
• Dike breaches pose significant risks during extreme river discharge events, necessitating rapid impact assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a conceptual model for dike breach outflow with integrated breach growth.
• To assess the model's performance across various river discharge conditions and breach locations.
• To enable rapid, probabilistic analysis of dike breach consequences for emergency decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Development of a conceptual model incorporating dike breach growth dynamics.
• Simulation of dike breach outflow for diverse river discharge scenarios and locations along Rhine bifurcations.
• Comparison of conceptual model results against a high-fidelity hydrodynamic model.

Main Results:

• The conceptual model accurately estimates dike breach outflow, irrespective of river discharge wave characteristics.
• Achieved 10-15% error compared to operational hydrodynamic models.
• Enabled analysis of thousands of scenarios per minute, facilitating probabilistic assessments.

Conclusions:

• The developed conceptual model provides realistic, rapid first estimates of dike breach outflow.
• Suitable for large-scale dike breaches requiring minimal input data and computational resources.
• Enhances emergency preparedness and decision-making for extreme river discharge events.