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Economic Threats, Political and National Identification Predict Affective Polarization: Longitudinal Evidence From
Efraín García-Sánchez1,2, Felicity Turner-Zwinkels3, Rebekka Kesberg4,5
1Stanford SPARQ, Department of Psychology, Stanford University, CA, USA.
International Review of Social Psychology
|September 15, 2025
Summary
Collective economic threats and national/political identities increase affective polarization in Spain. Personal economic threats did not show this effect. Political ideology may moderate these relationships.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Political Science
- Economics
Background:
- Affective polarization is linked to economic threats and political identities.
- Further research is needed to understand how specific economic threats and identities influence polarization.
Purpose of the Study:
- To longitudinally examine the impact of personal and collective economic threats and various identities on affective polarization in Spain.
- To explore the moderating role of political ideology in these relationships.
Main Methods:
- Longitudinal multilevel analyses were conducted on four waves of the E-DEM panel study data from Spain (2018-2019, N=2,501).
- Predictors were analyzed at both between- and within-person levels to assess growth in affective polarization.
Main Results:
- Collective economic threats (perceived wealth unfairness, dissatisfaction with the Spanish economy) positively predicted affective polarization.
- Political and national identities also positively predicted affective polarization towards politicians and partisans.
- Personal economic threats did not significantly predict affective polarization.
Conclusions:
- Collective economic perceptions and national/political identities are significant drivers of affective polarization in Spain.
- Political ideology may influence the strength of the association between economic factors, identities, and affective polarization.
- Findings highlight how economic anxieties and group affiliations can intensify animosity towards political figures.
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