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An expert elicitation to inform coastal management decision-making for mitigating future hazards
Davina L Passeri1, Matthew Richardson2, Julien Martin2
1U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St Petersburg, FL, USA.
Journal of Environmental Management
|September 28, 2025
Summary
Coastal restoration feasibility was assessed using expert elicitation. Experts predict increased storm surge flooding with sea level rise (SLR), but beach nourishment may reduce erosion.
Area of Science:
- Coastal Science
- Environmental Management
- Climate Change Adaptation
Background:
- Coastal environments face increasing hazards due to climate change, necessitating adaptive management strategies.
- Assessing the feasibility of restoration actions is crucial for effective coastal hazard mitigation and meeting management objectives.
- Sea level rise (SLR) poses significant threats to coastal ecosystems and infrastructure.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the feasibility of coastal environment restoration under future hazard scenarios using expert judgment.
- To provide probabilistic estimates of coastal change metrics to inform decision-making for management actions.
- To incorporate stakeholder input into the evaluation of coastal restoration alternatives.
Main Methods:
- Conducted a scientific expert elicitation process involving subject matter experts.
- Experts produced probabilistic estimates of coastal change metrics (salt marsh extent, storm surge flooding, barrier island morphology) by 2050.
- Considered three management scenarios (no action, interior headland restoration, beach and dune nourishment) and effects of future sea level rise (SLR).
Main Results:
- Experts confidently predicted increased storm surge flooding with SLR, irrespective of management interventions.
- Marsh response estimates showed high uncertainty; marsh area is expected to decrease with SLR under a 'no action' scenario.
- Dune heights and barrier island widths are projected to decrease with SLR without intervention, while nourishment may reduce erosion.
Conclusions:
- Expert elicitation offers a novel and valuable tool for informing coastal management decisions and identifying future research needs.
- Understanding the dynamic interplay of SLR and bio-geo-physical processes is critical for effective coastal management.
- The size and location of management interventions significantly influence coastal responses to future hazards.
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