Early career setback and future achievement in professional sports

A central tenet of human performance posits that past success is a key predictor of future outcomes. This principle underpins selection processes in various human endeavors, shaping opportunity, wage, and winner-take-all inequalities. Here we systematically examine the future performance of previous winners and non-winners across two sports contexts using two different empirical strategies. First, we track young athletes participating in world-class track and field competitions and compare the future performance of bronze medalists to those finishing just shy of the podium. Next, we study a novel natural experiment in tennis, where we compare future performances of 'lucky losers'-players who advanced to the main draw due to last-minute withdrawals from others-to those who just missed advancing. Our findings reveal that although past performance generally correlates with future outcomes, there appear to be notable exceptions at the margins. Interestingly, individuals initially classified as non-winners, despite being objectively outperformed, can surpass the future performance of their winning counterparts. These results not only reinforce the conventional wisdom of basing talent selection on past success but also introduce important nuances. They highlight the importance of recognizing both winning and non-winning experiences in talent scouting and assessment, with implications for nurturing diverse potential within talent pools.