The Silent Cognitive Burden of Chronic Pain: Protocol for an AI-Enhanced Living Dose-Response Bayesian Meta-Analysis

Background: Chronic pain affects nearly one in five adults worldwide and is increasingly recognized not only as a disease but as a potential risk factor for neurocognitive decline and dementia. While some evidence supports this association, existing systematic reviews are static and rapidly outdated, and none have leveraged advanced methods for continuous updating and robust uncertainty modeling. Objective: This protocol describes a living systematic review with dose-response Bayesian meta-analysis, enhanced by artificial intelligence (AI) tools, to synthesize and maintain up-to-date evidence on the prospective association between any type of chronic pain and subsequent cognitive decline. Methods: We will systematically search PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and preprint servers for prospective cohort studies evaluating chronic pain as an exposure and cognitive decline as an outcome. Screening will be semi-automated using natural language processing models (ASReview), with human oversight for quality control. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis will estimate pooled effect sizes and accommodate between-study heterogeneity. Meta-regression will explore study-level moderators such as pain type, severity, and cognitive domain assessed. If data permit, a dose-response meta-analysis will be conducted. Living updates will occur biannually using AI-enhanced workflows, with results transparently disseminated through preprints and peer-reviewed updates. Results: This is a protocol; results will be disseminated in future reports. Conclusions: This living Bayesian systematic review aims to provide continuously updated, methodologically rigorous evidence on the link between chronic pain and cognitive decline. The approach integrates innovative AI tools and advanced meta-analytic methods, offering a template for future living evidence syntheses in neurology and pain research.