Modeling the Potential Invasion Risk of Ageratina adenophora in China From an Ecological Suitability Perspective

Invasive species like Ageratina adenophora significantly threaten biodiversity, ecosystem stability, and economic resources in China. This study assesses the current and future potential invasion risk of A. adenophora across China, focusing on the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi-areas identified as highly susceptible to invasion. Utilizing both climate and human activity data, our results reveal that population density and temperature seasonality are dominant national-scale factors that affect the invasion risk of A. adenophora, while regional drivers exhibit significant variation. Projections show a northward and altitudinal shift in invasion risk by the 2060s, highlighting new potential invasion hotspots driven by future changes in climate and human activities. These findings underscore the importance of region-specific management strategies and establish a foundation for adaptive measures to mitigate the ecological and economic impacts of A. adenophora.