Ultrasound-based prediction model for years to peak height velocity using multiple secondary ossification centers

Determining peak height velocity age (PHVA) is crucial for understanding child growth and development and preventing injuries. Previous studies have used anthropometric measurements or X-ray evaluation to predict the timing of PHV, whereas ultrasound provides a radiation-free and portable alternative. This study aimed to predict the years to PHV by assessing multiple secondary ossification centers using ultrasound.

A total of 12 sites across eight bones were evaluated using ultrasound in 181 children aged 6-12 years between June and December 2019. Height data were tracked from school entry until December 2022, with PHVA calculated using AUXAL software. Multivariable regression analysis was performed using bone maturity as the explanatory variable and the difference between ultrasound measurement age and PHVA as the dependent variable.

A total of 159 participants were included in the final analysis. The hook of the hamate, calcaneus plantar thickness, plantar sesamoid, and tibial tuberosity were identified as significant variables for PHV prediction. The prediction equation was: Years to PHV = 1.206 + (0.562 × calcaneus plantar thickness) - (1.120 × plantar sesamoid) - (0.675 × tibial tuberosity) + (0.229 × hook of the hamate). This model achieved an adjusted R² of 0.782.

Ultrasound evaluation of multiple secondary ossification centers may provide a valuable method for predicting years to PHV.