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Development of burn prescriptions using quantitative expert judgement.

Jane G Cawson¹, Jamie E Burton¹, Kate A Parkins¹

¹School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, 500 Yarra Boulevard, Burnley, Victoria, Australia, 3121.

Journal of Environmental Management

|October 28, 2025

Summary

Structured elicitation of expert knowledge improved prescribed burning prescriptions, increasing burn windows for high-coverage fires. Patchy fire outcomes may require ignition technique adjustments.

Keywords:

Decision science Fire management IDEA protocol Prescribed burning fuel hazard fuel management

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Area of Science:

Ecological Sciences
Forestry
Environmental Management

Background:

Prescribed burning relies on burn prescriptions, often based on expert knowledge.
Current methods for eliciting expert insights lack rigor, impacting prescription reliability.
Structured elicitation offers a more robust approach to capturing experiential knowledge.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop new burn prescriptions for Victorian native forests and woodlands using structured elicitation techniques.
To create prescriptions for two priority burn outcomes: mixed severity/patchy and high severity/high coverage.
To investigate the influence of fuel hazards on prescribed burning conditions.

Main Methods:

Employed structured elicitation techniques to gather expert knowledge from burn practitioners.
Developed prescriptions for five vegetation scenarios with varying fuel hazards.
Compared elicited prescriptions against current ones to assess changes in burn windows.

Main Results:

New prescriptions for high severity, high coverage burns expanded the burn window by 40%.
Prescriptions for mixed severity, patchy burns showed little change in burn window.
Fuel hazard had minimal impact on the prescribed weather conditions.
Elicited prescriptions for patchy burns were generally wetter and less windy than for high-coverage burns.

Conclusions:

Quantitative expert judgment effectively harnesses practitioner experience for developing burn prescriptions.
Achieving patchy burn outcomes may necessitate modifications beyond weather conditions, such as ignition techniques.
Field testing is recommended for further refinement of the developed burn prescriptions.