Validation of the HCM Risk-SCD Model in a Chinese Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Cohort

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Medical Statistics

Background:

• Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a significant risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD).
• The established HCM Risk-SCD model's efficacy in Chinese populations requires validation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the performance of the HCM Risk-SCD model in predicting SCD among Chinese HCM patients.
• To assess the model's discriminative ability and calibration in a distinct ethnic cohort.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective cohort study of 534 Chinese HCM patients (1992-2010).
• Calculation of HCM Risk-SCD scores and categorization into low (<4%) and intermediate-high (≥4%) risk groups.
• Assessment of model performance using Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier survival, and ROC curve analyses.

Main Results:

• A total of 31 SCD events occurred during a mean follow-up of 6.96 years.
• The intermediate-high-risk group exhibited significantly higher SCD incidence (8.68% vs. 3.42%, p=0.01).
• The model demonstrated moderate discriminative ability (AUC=0.660) and acceptable calibration, with a 5-year event rate of 4.31% aligning with the predicted 4.65%.

Conclusions:

• The HCM Risk-SCD model is a valuable tool for risk stratification of SCD in Chinese HCM patients.
• The model's performance suggests its applicability in clinical practice for this demographic.
• Further prospective studies may refine risk assessment in Chinese HCM cohorts.