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Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
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Conversion from coniferous to broadleaved trees can make European forests more climate-effective
Yi Yao1, Petra Sieber2, Mathias Hauser2
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. yi.yao@env.ethz.ch.
Nature Communications
|October 30, 2025
Summary
Changing European forests from coniferous to broadleaved trees can cool summer extremes. This tree species conversion is key for climate policy, especially in Northern and Central Europe, to mitigate warming impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Forest Ecology
- Environmental Policy
Background:
- Forestation's role in European climate policy is debated due to potential warming from solar absorption outweighing evaporative cooling.
- Understanding forest impacts is crucial for climate adaptation in a warming world.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the climate effectiveness of forestation in Europe, specifically focusing on the impact of tree species.
- To explore solutions for mitigating potential warming effects of forests in European climate policy.
Main Methods:
- Regional climate model simulations were used to analyze various forest change scenarios.
- Experiments focused on the effects of converting coniferous to broadleaved tree species.
Main Results:
- Conversion from coniferous to broadleaved trees can cool summer hot extremes, reducing mean daily maximum temperatures in July by up to 0.6 °C over Continental Europe.
- This species conversion can mitigate warming impacts of current forest composition, shifting temperature effects from +0.3 °C to -0.7 °C.
Conclusions:
- Tree species selection is critical for European forest policy, impacting climate effectiveness.
- Prioritizing forestation in Northern and Central Europe over Western and Southern regions is suggested for optimal climate benefits.
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