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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 10, 2026

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Published on: September 19, 2012

Stochastic responses and marginal valuation.

Lars Peter Hansen¹, Panagiotis Souganidis²

¹Department of Economics and Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|November 24, 2025

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces new methods for economic policy analysis, focusing on marginal valuations under deep uncertainty. These tools improve policy design by clarifying optimal choices and enhancing suboptimal ones, especially for climate change and R&D investments.

Keywords:

deep uncertainty policy assessment robustness stochastic differential equations valuation

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Area of Science:

Economics
Policy Analysis
Decision Science

Background:

Economic policy design requires analyzing impacts in dynamic and uncertain environments.
Current dynamic, stochastic models simplify reality, limiting policy evaluation.
There's a need for advanced tools to assess policy optimality and improvement potential.

Purpose of the Study:

To explore, refine, and extend tools for producing marginal valuations.
To develop representations of marginal valuations that embrace uncertainty.
To support robust policy implementation in environments with deep uncertainties.

Main Methods:

Developing novel representations of marginal valuations.
Incorporating interactions among multiple state variables.
Addressing concerns about model misspecification and long-term uncertainties.

Main Results:

The proposed methods offer a more complete understanding of policy impacts.
Representations embrace uncertainty, enabling robust implementation.
These tools are particularly useful for assessing complex, long-term issues.

Conclusions:

The developed methods enhance the assessment of economic policies.
They provide crucial insights for evaluating the global cost of climate change.
The approach is valuable for determining the global value of long-term research and development.