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Optimizing Fuel Consumption Prediction Model Without an On-Board Diagnostic System in Deep Learning Frameworks.

Rıdvan Keskin1, Egemen Belge1, Senol Hakan Kutoglu2

  • 1Department of Electrical Electronics Engineering, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak 67100, Türkiye.

Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 27, 2025
PubMed
Summary

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We developed a new model for predicting vehicle fuel consumption rate (FCR) using only throttle, speed, and acceleration data. This data-driven approach improves accuracy and efficiency, reducing emissions without needing complex vehicle specifics.

Area of Science:

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Machine Learning
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Accurate real-time fuel consumption rate (FCR) prediction is crucial for enhancing vehicle energy efficiency and reducing emissions.
  • Conventional methods often require specific vehicle parameters and environmental data, limiting their applicability.
  • On-board diagnostic (OBD) systems are typically used for FCR data acquisition but can be complex.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel, data-driven FCR prediction model using readily available vehicle data.
  • To enhance prediction accuracy and reliability using deep learning and probabilistic methods.
  • To reduce reliance on complex vehicle-specific parameters and environmental conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a Bayesian optimization and Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout-based long short-term memory (BMC-LSTM) network.
Keywords:
Bayesian optimizationdeep learningfuel consumption predictionlong short-term memorymachine learning

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  • Utilizing only vehicle throttle position, velocity, and acceleration data for prediction.
  • Integration of Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning and MC-Dropout for uncertainty quantification.
  • Main Results:

    • The BMC-LSTM model achieved superior prediction accuracy compared to conventional LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, XGBoost, support vector regression, and polynomial models.
    • The proposed method demonstrated a significantly higher R-squared score and reduced error metrics (MSE, RMSE, MAE).
    • The model provides calibrated predictions and robustness against distribution drift.

    Conclusions:

    • The BMC-LSTM model offers a cost-effective and accurate solution for real-time FCR prediction.
    • This approach simplifies FCR prediction by requiring only basic vehicle kinematic data at inference.
    • The method enhances energy efficiency and emission reduction potential in vehicles.