[Energy-carbon Prediction and Development of Low-carbon Path in Northwest China Based on LEAP Model: A Case Study of...

Using energy consumption and other statistical data of a region in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022, this study examines the historical energy consumption structure and CO₂ emissions of the region. Three scenarios of baseline, energy-saving, and low-carbon were constructed based on the LEAP model to predict and analyze the energy demand and CO₂ emissions of the region from 2023 to 2035 under different scenarios. The results showed that: Under the baseline scenario, the total regional energy demand continued to grow, while CO₂ emissions showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing and were expected to peak around 2025. Under the conditions of fully tapping the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in the region and accelerating the green transformation of the industrial and energy consumption structure, the energy demand and carbon emissions in the region could achieve a significant decline in the future. Considering the contributions of the various secondary scenarios, the improvement in end-use energy efficiency will be the most effective option for controlling the total energy demand in both the short and long term. The release of energy-saving potentials on the demand side will effectively reduce the energy intensity of the GDP unit, with an expected energy-saving contribution rate of 59.1% in 2035. Optimizing of the energy consumption structure is the key to controlling the continuous decline in total carbon emissions. Therefore, natural resources should be used to vigorously develop clean energy and improve the electrification level to achieve clean and low-carbon supply side, and the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP in 2035 is expected to be reduced by approximately 70% compared with that in 2020 under the low-carbon scenario.