[Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use and Carbon Storage in Henan Province Based on InVEST-PLUS Model]

Analysis and assessment of land use characteristics and carbon stock evolution are of great value for optimizing the spatial development pattern of land and facilitating regional sustainable development. Taking Henan Province as the research area, this study analyzed the characteristics of land use change and its driving factors from 2000 to 2020. The PLUS model was then employed to predict the land use scenarios in 2030 and 2050 under five distinct scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, urban development, arable land protection, and planning guidance. Additionally, the InVEST model was utilized to evaluate the carbon stock conditions from 2000 to 2020 and those in 2030 and 2050 under different scenarios. The results showed that: ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land and grassland in Henan Province continued to decline, the area of forest land decreased overall, the area of water increased overall, and the area of construction land continued to increase. The transfer of land use was mainly manifested as the transfer of cultivated land to construction land, woodland and construction land to arable land, and grassland to forest land. ② The socio-economic driving factors contributed to the expansion of forest land and grassland from 2000 to 2010 and cultivated land, grassland, and construction land from 2010 to 2020 in Henan Province, with the contribution rate being 52.62% and 50.06% and 51.53%, 50.63%, and 52.68%, respectively. The contribution rate of natural driving factors to the expansion of cultivated land, water, and construction land during 2000-2010 and forest land and water bodies during 2010-2020 was 51.62%, 52.49%, and 52.19% and 50.40% and 55.82%, respectively. ③ The land use carbon reserves of Henan Province in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 174.19×10⁷, 173.43×10⁷, and 170.40×10⁷ t, respectively, showing a continuous decreasing trend, with a total decrease of 3.79×10⁷ t. ④ The land use in Henan Province in 2030 and 2050 under the five scenarios generally followed the trend of changes from 2000 to 2020, with a decrease in cultivated land and grassland areas and an increase in water bodies and built-up land areas. Only the forest land area increased in the ecological protection scenario. The area of land use change increased as the prediction year increased. ⑤ In 2030, the carbon stocks in Henan Province under the five scenarios were predicted to be 167.96×10⁷, 168.83×10⁷, 167.24×10⁷, 167.92×10⁷, and 169.38×10⁷ t, respectively. In 2050, those under the five development scenarios would be 163.46×10⁷, 165.84×10⁷, 161.47×10⁷, 163.54×10⁷, and 167.67×10⁷ t, respectively. Notably, all of these values were lower than the land use carbon stock in 2020. Among them, the carbon stock decrease under the planning guidance scenario was the smallest. The temporal and spatial change of carbon storage was consistent with the change of land use type. Based on relevant planning schemes, future land use should further balance the relationship among urban development, farmland protection, and ecological security to reduce carbon emissions and improve the comprehensive benefits of land use.