Determinants and prognostic value of onset symptoms in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) has heterogeneous clinical presentations at onset. We aimed to investigate determinants of MS onset-symptom type, and the prognostic relevance of onset categories for long-term disability outcomes.

We analyzed 1385 incident MS cases from a Swedish population-based case-control study. Onset symptoms were hierarchically categorized as pyramidal/motor, brainstem/cerebellar, visual, or sensory, with sensory used as the reference. Associations with sex, ancestry, age at onset, smoking and body mass index were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Disability progression was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models for time to EDSS 3, 4, and 6.

Male sex was associated with higher odds of motor (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.07-2.20) and brainstem/cerebellar onset (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.00-1.84). Non-Nordic ancestry was linked to motor onset (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.21-2.51). Obesity was strongly associated with visual onset (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.41-3.40), and smoking with motor and brainstem/cerebellar onset. Motor onset consistently predicted shorter times to EDSS milestones. Brainstem/cerebellar onset conferred increased risk of reaching EDSS 4. In supplementary analyses, multifocal onset was associated with faster progression, but this effect was largely driven by concomitant motor involvement.

The first clinical manifestation of MS varies by demographic and lifestyle characteristics and carries prognostic value for subsequent disability progression.