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Early Detection of Cyanobacterial Blooms and Associated Cyanotoxins using Fast Detection Strategy

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Real-Time Empirical Risk Assessment From Recurrent Coastal Sewage Plumes.

Vitul Agarwal¹, Falk Feddersen¹, Elizabeth Brasseale²

¹Scripps Institution of Oceanography UC San Diego La Jolla CA USA.

|December 5, 2025

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Untreated wastewater from Mexico impacts San Diego beaches, increasing health risks. A new tool links ocean temperature and salinity to wastewater events, predicting exposure duration and frequency for coastal communities.

Keywords:

ROMS norovirus public health risk risk assessment state‐space models wastewater pollution

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Oceanography
Public Health

Background:

Untreated wastewater discharge from Mexico poses significant human health risks to coastal communities in the San Diego-Tijuana border region.
Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of wastewater plumes is crucial for effective risk management.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and validate a risk assessment tool for coastal communities to predict wastewater exposure.
To link environmental parameters (temperature, salinity) to wastewater concentration and associated health risks.

Main Methods:

Utilized hindcast oceanographic simulations (2017-2019) to model wastewater plume behavior.
Calculated exposure timescales (duration, return time) for popular beaches.
Developed statistical models correlating environmental anomalies with wastewater concentration and illness risk.

Main Results:

High wastewater exposure events occurred monthly at southern beaches, lasting less than a week, and less frequently further north.
Lower salinity and temperature anomalies were strongly associated with high wastewater concentrations.
Statistical models incorporating salinity and temperature anomalies effectively predicted wastewater-associated illness risk (R² = 0.63-0.78).

Conclusions:

The developed risk assessment tool efficiently links environmental data to wastewater pollution.
This approach provides a practical method for coastal communities to manage health risks from wastewater contamination.
The tool has potential applications for other coastal areas impacted by pollution.