[Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value of Resource-based Cities in Henan...

Ecosystem service value （ESV） is an important indicator of ecological environment quality level. Resource-based cities are important areas that impact the level of ecological environment quality. Thus, it is of great significance to explore the characteristics of land use and ESV changes from a multi-scenario perspective for their green transformation, ecological environment restoration, and sustainable development. Based on three periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020, the equivalent factor method, cold and hot spot analysis, and PLUS model were applied to explore the characteristics of land use and ESV changes in resource cities in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020 and to simulate and predict the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use changes and ESV under multiple scenarios of natural development, urban development, and ecological protection in 2030. The results showed that： ① The main land types in the study area from 2000 to 2020 were cropland and forest land. In terms of land-use transfers, the largest areas transferred in were forest land and construction land, and the largest areas transferred out were cropland and grassland. ② ESV in the study area from 2000 to 2020 showed a continuous upward trend, totaling 3.87 billion. Hydrological regulation and climate regulation were the main ecosystem service functions in the study area. ③ The ESVs under the three scenarios were 50.059 billion, 49.951 billion, and 50.214 billion, respectively. Their spatial distribution characteristics were similar, with the high value areas concentrated in the western, northwestern, and central regions and the low value areas concentrated in the northeastern and eastern regions. The ecological protection scenario was more conducive to improving the ecosystem service function of the study area. The results of the study provide some reference value for the development of other resource-based cities.