Global Glaucoma Prevalence: Burden and Projection to 2060

Area of Science:

• Ophthalmology
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Open-angle glaucoma (OAG) is a primary cause of irreversible blindness worldwide.
• Previous OAG burden estimates did not fully account for the escalating prevalence of myopia.
• Myopia is a significant risk factor, associated with earlier onset and increased OAG risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide updated global and regional prevalence and population burden estimates for OAG.
• To incorporate the impact of demographic aging and the rising prevalence of myopia.
• To project the OAG burden by 2060, considering both aging and myopia trends.

Main Methods:

• A systematic review and meta-analysis of 77 population-based studies (1991-2023) informed current OAG prevalence.
• OAG prevalence in 2060 was modeled using risk ratios for myopia and United Nations population data.
• Early-onset OAG in younger populations (20-39 years) was estimated separately based on projected high myopia prevalence.

Main Results:

• Global OAG prevalence (≥40 years) is projected to increase from 2.8% in 2024 to 3.5% by 2060.
• The number of individuals with OAG is expected to more than double, reaching 186.6 million by 2060.
• The myopia epidemic is estimated to contribute an additional 28.9 million OAG cases, with 6.1 million early-onset cases in younger adults.

Conclusions:

• The global OAG burden is significantly underestimated, largely driven by the increasing prevalence of myopia.
• Myopia contributes substantially to OAG cases, including early-onset OAG in individuals under 40.
• Urgent implementation of myopia prevention and targeted OAG screening strategies is crucial, particularly in myopia-prevalent regions.