Animal Disease Burden in Nigeria, 2006-2023

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Animal Health Surveillance
• Disease Modeling

Background:

• Reliable data is essential for animal health decision-making and disease preparedness in Nigeria.
• The World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) provides global animal disease reports crucial for national analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To summarize the animal disease burden in Nigeria from 2006-2023 using WAHIS data.
• To forecast annual outbreak estimates for the top 10 most reported animal diseases using a ZINB regression model.

Main Methods:

• Descriptive statistics were used to analyze 3362 WAHIS reports, detailing 9331 disease outbreaks.
• A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was employed for forecasting future disease trends.
• Analysis included case numbers, culls, vaccinations, and spatial distribution of outbreaks.

Main Results:

• Infectious bursal disease (IBD), Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) were most frequent non-zoonotic diseases.
• Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), Newcastle disease (NCD), and fowl typhoid were most common in poultry; CBPP and trypanosomiasis in cattle.
• The North Central region reported the highest disease burden (20.7%).
• Forecasts predict increasing trends for NCD, rabies, and foot and mouth disease (FMD) through 2030.
• African swine fever (ASF) and trypanosomiasis showed slower increases, while PPR and IBD were projected to rise sharply.

Conclusions:

• Nigeria experiences a significant animal disease burden, potentially underestimated.
• Enhanced prevention and control strategies, including syndromic surveillance and investment in veterinary infrastructure, are urgently needed.
• A transdisciplinary One Health approach is recommended for improved disease surveillance and management.