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Hybrid ANFIS-MPA and FFNN-MPA Models for Bitcoin Price Forecasting
Ceren Baştemur Kaya1, Ebubekir Kaya2,3, Eyüp Sıramkaya2
1Department of Computer Technologies, Nevşehir Vocational School, Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli University, Nevşehir 50100, Türkiye.
None:
This study introduces two hybrid forecasting models that integrate the Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) and Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNN) for short-term Bitcoin price prediction. Daily Bitcoin data from 2022 were converted into supervised time-series structures with multiple input configurations. The proposed hybrid models were evaluated against six well-known metaheuristic algorithms commonly used for training intelligent forecasting systems. The results show that MPA consistently yields lower prediction errors, faster convergence, and more stable optimization behavior compared with alternative algorithms. Both ANFIS-MPA and FFNN-MPA maintained their advantage across all tested structures, demonstrating reliable performance under varying model complexities. All experiments were repeated multiple times, and the hybrid approaches exhibited low variance, indicating robust and reproducible behavior. Overall, the findings highlight the effectiveness of MPA as an optimizer for improving the predictive performance of neuro-fuzzy and neural network models in financial time-series forecasting.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.