Building Vaccine Readiness for Future Pandemics: Insights from COVID-19 Vaccine Intent and Uptake

This longitudinal study investigated psychosocial predictors of COVID-19 vaccine intentions before vaccine availability (July 2020) and vaccine uptake or ongoing intent after widespread vaccine rollout (April 2021) using constructs from the Health Belief Model (HBM) and a measure of trust in government.

A U.S. adult sample (N = 142) completed surveys at two time points: prior to and following the release of COVID-19 vaccines. Key predictors included demographics, trust in government, and HBM constructs. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to predict vaccine intent and uptake at both time points.

At Time 1, intent to vaccinate was significantly predicted by higher perceived susceptibility (p = 0.038), greater perceived benefits (p < 0.001), and lower perceived barriers (p = 0.002). Trust in government was not a significant predictor. At Time 2, vaccine uptake/ongoing intent was significantly predicted by higher trust in government (p = 0.047), greater perceived benefits (p < 0.001), and lower perceived barriers (p = 0.002). Perceived susceptibility was no longer a significant predictor. Between time points, trust in government and self-efficacy increased, while perceived severity and barriers decreased.

Perceived benefits and barriers were robust predictors of vaccine behavior across both time points. Trust in government became a stronger predictor once vaccines were available, underscoring the importance of building and maintaining public trust throughout a health crisis. Messaging should emphasize vaccine benefits, proactively address barriers, and adapt over time as public perceptions shift. These findings inform strategies for enhancing vaccine confidence and readiness in future pandemics.