Driving analysis and multi-scenario simulation of water-energy-food system efficiency in the Yellow River Basin: An...

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus, which provides a critical framework for coordinating the management of multiple interrelated fundamental resources, such as water, energy and food, is key to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Urgently conduct the in-depth research on the spatiotemporal evolution driving mechanism of WEF efficiency, and scientific predictions of its dynamic response in different future development scenarios. Therefore, this study constructed a comprehensive framework that integrates the super-efficiency network SBM model, Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, Explainable Machine Learning model and XGBoost-LSTM model, to conduct the quantitative evaluation, driving factor analysis, and multi-scenario simulation of the WEF system efficiency in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2022, the efficiency of WEF system and its subsystems followed a declining-then-rising trend; (2) Driven by economic development and ecological resilience, the eastern and southern regions demonstrated higher system efficiency and better subsystem balance compared to the central and western regions; (3) The spatiotemporal heterogeneity significantly shapes the critical impact of government fiscal capacity in improving the WEF system and its energy and food subsystems, while water use control is crucial for enhancing the water subsystem efficiency; (4) Compared to single XGBoost and LSTM models, the XGBoost-LSTM integrated model improves prediction accuracy by approximately 12.11 % and 8.9 %, respectively; (5) Multi-scenario projections based on the XGBoost-LSTM model identify the WEF synergistic enhancement scenario as the optimal pathway for enhancing WEF system efficiency in the YRB. The WEF comprehensive framework proposed in this study can provide case demonstration and technical method for other regions in the world facing similarly resource management and sustainable development issues.