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Climate mitigation outcomes from China-led emission reductions toward global carbon neutrality
Yadong Lei1, Zhili Wang1, Junting Zhong1
1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Updated climate pledges, including China's, may limit global warming to 2.05°C by 2100. This projection suggests achieving the 2.0°C target is possible without early carbon removal.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Earth System Science
- Environmental Policy
Background:
- Nations updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, with China setting dual carbon goals.
- The precise climate impact of these updated NDCs remains uncertain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the climate mitigation outcomes of the latest NDCs.
- To assess the feasibility of the 2.0°C climate target.
Main Methods:
- Ensemble simulations using an Earth System Model.
- A new global emission scenario aligned with China's carbon neutrality pathway.
Main Results:
- Projected global temperature rise of 2.05°C by 2100 under the latest NDCs.
- Indicates the 2.0°C target is achievable without extensive early carbon removal.
- Demonstrates temporally asymmetric climate outcomes: long-term benefits versus near-term adverse impacts.
Conclusions:
- The latest NDCs show potential for significant climate mitigation.
- Achieving climate targets requires careful consideration of near-term versus long-term impacts.
- Findings are relevant for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Seventh Assessment Report.
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