Machine Learning-Based Clusters of Vital Signs and Lactate Levels Predict Vasopressor Use in Sepsis

Sepsis remains a major clinical challenge because of its complex, heterogeneous, and multidimensional clustering patterns. This study aimed to investigate the association between vasopressor administration and machine learning-derived clusters based on initial vital signs and lactate measurements obtained in emergency department (ED) and intensive care unit (ICU) settings.

A retrospective cohort analysis was performed using data from the Korean Shock Society Septic Shock (KOSS) Registry (septic shock in the ED) and the Marketplace for Medical Information in Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database (ICU patients with suspected infection). To derive clusters, k-means clustering was applied to six initial vital signs and serum lactate measurements. The primary outcome was vasopressor administration. Secondary outcomes included second vasopressor administration and 28-day mortality.

A total of 17,500 patients were included in the analysis (KOSS cohort, n=7,130; MIMIC-IV cohort, n=10,370). K-means clustering identified three distinct clusters in each cohort. In the KOSS cohort, Cluster 3 was characterized by the lowest mean arterial pressure (MAP) (62 mmHg [IQR, 53-71]) and the highest diastolic shock index (DSI) (2.6 [2.3-3.0]). This cluster was associated with the highest rates of vasopressor administration (93.9%), second vasopressor administration (33.5%), and 28-day mortality (25.3%) (all p<0.001). Comparable physiological and clinical patterns were observed in the MIMIC-IV cohort, in which Cluster 3 likewise demonstrated the lowest MAP (68 mmHg [60-76]) and highest DSI (2.0 [1.8-2.3]). This group similarly exhibited the poorest outcomes, including vasopressor administration (41.0%), second vasopressor administration (16.7%), and 28-day mortality (29.0%).

Machine learning-derived clusters based on initial vital signs and serum lactate levels demonstrated different patterns of vasopressor use and mortality. The clinical utility of this approach for guiding timely or targeted vasopressor therapy requires prospective validation.