Geographic and Temporal Trends in Adult Diabetes Prevalence, United States, 2011-2021

Diabetes is a leading cause of various adverse health outcomes, and its prevalence has risen substantially in the United States in recent decades. While the prevalence of diabetes has stabilized in recent years, geographic disparities remain, particularly in the South. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends of diabetes prevalence in the United States and identified geographic disparities.

We conducted a geographic-temporal analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chronic disease indicator data using a bayesian hierarchical model to assess changes in diabetes prevalence across US divisions and over time from 2011 through 2021.

We estimated that diabetes prevalence rates per 1000 population declined in the United States from 56.5 in 2011 to 53.2 in 2021. The East South Central division had a high prevalence rate of diabetes (8.4), followed by New England (5.4) and West South Central (3.4). The diabetes prevalence rate was higher among men (2.64 per 1000 population) than among women.

Our findings highlight the need for continued public health efforts, such as reducing rates of obesity and improving health care access, to mitigate the prevalence of diabetes in the South and to maintain the continued decrease in prevalence rates in the coming years.