[Analysis of Spatial Patterns and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Services in Beijing Based on XGBoost-SHAP Model]

Studying the spatial patterns of ecosystem services and their driving factors is crucial for strengthening ecological management and promoting sustainable environmental development. This research focuses on Beijing as the study area. The InVEST model was applied to analyze the spatial correlation， trade-offs， and synergies of habitat quality， carbon storage， water yield， and soil retention from 2000 to 2020. The analysis utilized methods such as spatial autocorrelation， cold/hot spot analysis， and bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally， the XGBoost-SHAP model was employed to identify the key factors affecting ecosystem services. The results showed that： ① The high-value areas of habitat quality were mainly concentrated in regions with higher terrain and less interference from human activities. Carbon storage exhibited a spatial distribution trend that was high in the northwest and low in the southeast. The high-value areas of water yield were concentrated in urban areas， while the high-value areas of soil conservation were primarily distributed in the southwest and were more scattered in the north. ② Global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that the global Moran's I indices for the four ecosystem services all passed the significance test and demonstrated significant high-value aggregation characteristics. ③ There was a significant synergistic relationship between habitat quality， carbon storage， and soil conservation. However， there was a trade-off between water yield and these factors. ④ The XGBoost regression model showed good prediction performance on both the training set and the test set， with the predictive performance on the training set being better than that on the test set. The SHAP model analysis indicated that elevation was the key driving factor affecting the four ecosystem services. Slope significantly affected habitat quality， carbon storage， and soil conservation. Population density mainly affected habitat quality and water yield， while annual precipitation had an important influence on water yield and soil conservation. The research results can provide scientific support for optimizing the spatial patterns of ecosystem services and formulating ecological protection strategies in Beijing.