Mathematical modeling and transmission insights into Mpox: dynamics, control measures, and data-driven validation

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Mpox (formerly monkeypox) presents significant public health challenges due to its transmission dynamics.
• Understanding transmission pathways, including human-to-human and zoonotic routes, is crucial for effective control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a mathematical framework for Mpox transmission.
• To identify critical factors influencing disease spread and stability.
• To evaluate optimal intervention strategies for Mpox control.

Main Methods:

• Mathematical modeling of Mpox transmission dynamics.
• Calculation of effective reproduction numbers ($R_{0P}$ and $R_{0R}$).
• Stability analysis using LaSalle invariance theorem.
• Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation using Argentinian data.
• Numerical simulations of disease spread and intervention impacts.

Main Results:

• Identification of critical equilibrium points and conditions for Mpox emergence.
• Quantification of the impact of human-to-human and zoonotic transmission on $R_{0P}$ and $R_{0R}$.
• Validation of the model using real-world case data from Argentina.
• Assessment of the effectiveness of vaccination, treatment, and public awareness strategies.

Conclusions:

• The mathematical framework provides valuable insights into Mpox transmission dynamics.
• Targeted interventions, informed by this model, can effectively manage and mitigate Mpox outbreaks.
• Continued research and data-driven strategies are essential for preventing future Mpox epidemics.