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Updated: May 5, 2026

Vaccinia Virus Infection & Temporal Analysis of Virus Gene Expression: Part 1
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Geographical Variation in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential in Massachusetts.

Ina Sze-Ting Lee1, Xinyi Hua2, Jing Xiong Kersey3

  • 1School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA 02118, USA.

Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)
|February 20, 2026
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Summary

School closures and gathering restrictions significantly reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Rt) in Massachusetts. Other nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) showed no significant impact on COVID-19 spread.

Keywords:
COVID-19United Statesepidemiologynon-pharmaceutical interventionsreproduction numbertime series analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

  • Ecological study analyzing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Massachusetts from 2020-2022.
  • Investigated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess changes in SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (Rt) across six Massachusetts regions.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of NPIs implemented in 2020 on COVID-19 transmission.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized COVID-19 incident case data adjusted for reporting delays and underreporting.
  • Estimated Rt using the EpiEstim R package with sliding and non-overlapping time windows.
  • Corrected for negative/zero counts via imputation.

Main Results:

  • Massachusetts experienced five COVID-19 surges between 2020-2022, with Rt > 1 during each wave.
  • School closures and gathering restrictions led to a 14.7% statewide Rt reduction, greater in dense areas like Boston.
  • Other 2020 NPIs (mask mandates, reopening, travel restrictions) showed no statistically significant impact on Rt.

Conclusions:

  • Findings demonstrate varied effectiveness of NPIs on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Massachusetts.
  • Emphasizes the critical role of early, targeted interventions for future pandemic preparedness.