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International ETS and Physical Climate Risks.

Pengyu Chen1, Zhongzhu Chu2, Yuhao Zhao1

  • 1School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|March 2, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The Emissions Trading System (ETS) effectively reduces physical climate risks by promoting mitigation and adaptation. Its impact varies by country, and high carbon prices can create market imbalances.

Keywords:
Emissions Trading System (ETS)institutional theoryphysical climate risksresource‐based view

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Economics
  • Climate Governance
  • Sustainable Development

Background:

  • Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) are market-based climate policies linked to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
  • Keynesian critiques highlight investment inertia hindering climate risk management.
  • A debate exists regarding the effectiveness of ETS in managing climate risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To construct a novel conceptual framework integrating institutional theory and the resource-based view.
  • To empirically examine the relationship between ETS and physical climate risk.
  • To provide theoretical insights for ETS optimization and climate policy design.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) design.
  • Employed global data spanning from 2000 to 2023.
  • Integrated institutional theory and the resource-based view.

Main Results:

  • ETS significantly reduces physical climate risks, especially acute risks.
  • ETS operates through climate mitigation, adaptation, and finance pathways, with spillover and threshold effects.
  • Effectiveness varies based on ideological/economic alignments (capitalist, non-EU, non-OECD countries); high carbon prices can cause market imbalances.

Conclusions:

  • ETS is a substantive climate governance tool that mitigates physical climate risks.
  • Understanding the pathways and contextual factors is crucial for ETS effectiveness.
  • Empirical support is provided for optimizing ETS and designing future climate policies.