Revisiting National Life Expectancy: The Effect of Including Prenatal Deaths in Canada

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Sociology

Background:

• Current life expectancy calculations often exclude certain populations based on social desirability.
• This exclusion masks disparities and inaccurately inflates reported life expectancies.
• A more inclusive methodology is needed for accurate national health trend analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel methodology for calculating life expectancy that includes all individuals, regardless of social desirability.
• To evaluate the impact of this methodology on Canadian life expectancy estimates from 1970-2020, considering planned prenatal deaths.

Main Methods:

• Developed a revised life expectancy calculation incorporating individuals typically excluded from standard assessments.
• Applied the methodology to Canadian data from 1970 to 2020, including an analysis of planned prenatal deaths.
• Compared revised estimates with official life expectancy figures.

Main Results:

• Revised Canadian life expectancy in 2020 is approximately 65.8 years, 16.7 years lower than the official estimate of 82.5 years.
• A 20% decrease in life expectancy was observed when accounting for pregnancy terminations.
• The largest discrepancy of 20.5 years occurred in 2002 between official and revised estimates.

Conclusions:

• Published Canadian life expectancies are inaccurate due to biased calculation methods.
• A global reassessment of life expectancy calculations is necessary to ensure accuracy and equity.
• Future calculations must account for the life expectancy of all individuals to avoid bias.