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EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS OF SALMONELLOSIS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN: ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL DATA (2013-2024)
R Aibek1, M Baimuratova2, Z Sabanbayev3
11Kazakhstan Medical University "KSPH", Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Background:
Salmonellosis remains a relevant public health problem, requiring continuous epidemiological monitoring based on reliable surveillance data.
Aim:
To analyze long-term trends in salmonellosis incidence in the Republic of Kazakhstan during 2013-2024, with assessment of temporal dynamics, age-specific patterns, and laboratory confirmation indicators based on official monitoring data.
Materials And Methods:
A retrospective epidemiological analysis was conducted using aggregated laboratory surveillance data provided by the Scientific and Practical Center for Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Incidence rates were analyzed for the total population and defined age groups. Long-term dynamics were assessed using descriptive statistics, average annual change indicators, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test.
Results:
During 2013-2024, salmonellosis incidence in the Republic of Kazakhstan exhibited a statistically significant long-term decline (average annual rate of change, CAGR: -4.5% per year; p<0.001), accompanied by marked interannual variability. This trend was strongly influenced by a pronounced reduction in reported incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-2021). The highest incidence rates were consistently recorded among children under 1 year of age and those aged 1-2 years, in whom statistically significant decreasing trends were observed (p≤0.001). Among children aged 3-6 years and 7-14 years, no significant linear temporal trends were identified (p>0.05), indicating fluctuating incidence without a consistent directional change over time. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed cases demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend over time (p<0.001).
Conclusions:
Salmonellosis incidence in the Republic of Kazakhstan demonstrates a statistically significant long-term downward trend with persistent interannual fluctuations, which should be interpreted in the context of changes in surveillance intensity and healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic. Early childhood remains the most affected age group, while the absence of significant temporal trends among preschool and school-aged children indicates stable incidence levels over time and supports the need for continued epidemiological surveillance in these populations.
