[Non-coordinated Coupling Identification and Driving Mechanism Analysis of Carbon Reduction, Pollution Reduction, and...

In practice, the synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry still faces significant non-coordinated contradictions. Analyzing and strengthening the driving mechanism of synergistic efficiency in reducing carbon and pollution in the manufacturing industry is of great significance for promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in a coordinated manner. Based on panel data of segmented manufacturing industries from 2011 to 2022, we identify the temporal evolution characteristics of non-coordinated coupling in carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement in different industries and analyze their dynamic mechanisms through the XGBoost-SHAP model, which is conducive to accelerating the achievement of the "dual carbon" goal in the region. The results indicate that: ① The carbon reduction efficiency and pollution reduction efficiency of the manufacturing industry showed a phased improvement feature, but the differences within the industry were gradually widening. Among them, the carbon reduction efficiency has maintained steady growth, while the improvement of pollution reduction efficiency is relatively slow and faces greater challenges. ② Most manufacturing industries have maintained or improved a low-level non-coordinated coupling state in terms of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement, reflecting relatively good balance and progress characteristics. However, the non-coordinated coupling in industries such as chemical fibers, non-ferrous and black metal smelting, and rolling processing, as well as petroleum and coal, were showing an upward trend. ③ Ownership structure and environmental costs were key factors leading to the non-coordinated coupling of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement in the manufacturing industry, with the impact of ownership structure being the most significant. Although R&D intensity showed a negative effect, it is crucial for improving efficiency. ④ The tripartite synergy mechanism formed by high R&D intensity, appropriate market competition, and optimized capital allocation can effectively promote the coordinated and coupled development of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement in the manufacturing industry. Especially in fixed-asset intensive industries, the improvement of technological level has become the key to breaking through environmental cost constraints and overcoming technological substitution resistance.