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Parameterizing V-notch Weir Equations for Flow Monitoring in a Drainage Control Structure
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Inflow neglect: Forecasting failures after stocks run out.

Megan E Weber1, Stephen A Spiller1, Hal E Hershfield1

  • 1Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles.

Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
|March 19, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Understanding dynamic systems requires considering inflows and outflows. This study reveals "inflow neglect," a common error where people overlook continuous income, leading to misperceptions about future benefits, like Social Security.

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Last Updated: Mar 21, 2026

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Public Policy

Background:

  • Dynamic systems involve stocks, inflows, and outflows, common in personal finance and institutional management.
  • Misunderstanding these components can lead to significant errors in predicting future system states.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce and investigate "inflow neglect," a novel stock-flow reasoning error.
  • Examine how this error affects perceptions of future outflows, using the U.S. Social Security trust funds as a case study.
  • Identify communication strategies to mitigate inflow neglect.

Main Methods:

  • Experimental design presenting participants with information on stock (balance) versus flows (revenue, payments).
  • Interventions included prompting reflection on continuous inflows (e.g., payroll taxes).
  • Replication across different domains to assess generalizability.

Main Results:

  • Participants shown flow information were less likely to believe benefits would completely cease after depletion.
  • Reminding participants about continuous inflows significantly reduced inflow neglect and "zero-outflow" beliefs.
  • Findings were consistent across multiple experiments and domains.

Conclusions:

  • Inflow neglect is a significant cognitive bias impacting understanding of dynamic systems.
  • Communication strategies emphasizing continuous inflows can correct these misconceptions.
  • This research has implications for public policy communication, particularly for social insurance programs.