Prognostic Scoring Systems for Burns: A Comparative Analysis of Their Predictive Accuracies for Mortality in Burn...

Various scoring systems are applied to burn patients to assess the perioperative and mortality risks as well as comorbidities.

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive accuracies for mortality of different scoring systems: the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Bogenhausen ABSI (BABSI), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and modified Frailty Index-5 (mFI-5).

We retrospectively analyzed 644 burn patients treated at one burn center between September 2018 and May 2022.

Median scores were 5 (range: 1-16), 5 (range: 2-17.5), 2 (range: 1-5), 0 (range: 0-14) and 0 (range: 0-5) for the ABSI, BABSI, ASA, CCI and mFI-5, respectively. Significantly different median score results were observed between survivors and non-survivors: ABSI: 5 vs. 10; BABSI: 5 vs. 10.5; ASA: 2 vs. 4; CCI: 0 vs. 5; and mFI-5: 0 vs. 2 (p < 0.001 for all scores). Predictive accuracies were excellent for the BABSI (AUC = 0.963), ABSI (AUC = 0.952), and ASA (AUC = 0.916), whereas fair predictive accuracies were found for the CCI (AUC = 0.851) and mFI-5 (AUC = 0.760). Good calibration was observed for the BABSI, ABSI, CCI, and mFI-5, whereas calibration was poor for the ASA.

All five scores significantly differentiate between survivors and non-survivors. However, the strongest discriminatory power and best calibration for mortality prediction were observed for the BABSI and ABSI scores. Therefore, the application of both scores is recommended in daily routine.