Gender differences in a causal model of risk factors underlying early alcohol sipping

Early alcohol sipping with permission, here defined as tasting alcohol without necessarily taking a full drink by late childhood with parental permission, is an early marker of future problematic alcohol use. This study aimed to generate an initial data-driven causal model of the potential risk factors underlying early alcohol sipping and probe gender differences in this model.

We used deidentified data from the baseline visit of Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (N = 9,253; 47.2% girls, ages 9-10 years; 76% White, 20% African-American, 8% Other, 7% Asian, 4% Native; 21% Hispanic); 1,266 (13.7%) in this sample endorsed early alcohol sipping by age 9-10 (40.9% girls). We included the top-ranked environmental, health, and psychological factors underlying early alcohol sipping identified among 2000 + variables in a previous study in the same data set. We applied Causal Discovery Analysis to generate combined (boys and girls) and gender-specific causal models to investigate potential causal links with early alcohol sipping. We evaluated model stability by bootstrapping.

First, our causal model of early alcohol sipping in both boys and girls suggested that family-level factors directly linked to substance use (i.e., norms around alcohol use and maternal prenatal alcohol use) were causally linked to early alcohol sipping. Second, our causal model of sipping specific to girls suggested that suicidal ideation was causally linked to early alcohol sipping in girls only. Third, our causal model of sipping specific to boys suggested that early alcohol sipping was causally linked to sensation seeking and disliking school in boys only.

The current findings provide an initial model of important risk factors underlying the early onset of alcohol use. More broadly, the results suggest that the mechanisms previously linked to substance use in adolescence and adulthood can be traced back to childhood, and that gender differences are already present at this young age.