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Exploring the Predictive Value of National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) Rank in Residency Outcomes.

Emily Kwon1, Mingzhuo Pei1, Annie Xu1

  • 1Department of Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, Rutgers Health New Jersey Medical School, Newark, NJ, USA.

The Annals of Otology, Rhinology, and Laryngology
|April 6, 2026
PubMed
Summary

Higher National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) rank correlates with better otolaryngology resident milestone evaluations. However, NRMP rank does not reliably predict in-service exam scores or future career success.

Keywords:
NRMP rankgraduate medical educationmatchotolaryngologyresidency performanceresident evaluation

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Area of Science:

  • Medical Education
  • Surgical Training
  • Otolaryngology Residency

Background:

  • The National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) is a critical step in otolaryngology residency placement.
  • Understanding predictors of residency performance is essential for program evaluation and resident selection.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between NRMP rank list position and otolaryngology resident performance metrics.
  • To determine if NRMP rank predicts key aspects of residency success.

Main Methods:

  • Evaluated 18 otolaryngology residents from five graduating classes (2021-2025).
  • Assessed correlations between NRMP rank and in-service exam scores, research, case logs, milestone evaluations, chief resident selection, teaching awards, and post-residency positions.
  • Utilized Spearman's rho and chi-square tests for statistical analysis.

Main Results:

  • A significant negative correlation was found between NRMP rank and milestone evaluations (ρ = -.544, P = .020), indicating higher-ranked residents had better evaluations.
  • No significant correlations were observed between NRMP rank and in-service exam scores, research productivity, case logs, chief resident selection, teaching awards, or post-residency placement.

Conclusions:

  • Higher NRMP rank is associated with superior milestone evaluations in otolaryngology residents.
  • NRMP rank alone may not be a sufficient predictor for all aspects of residency performance or career outcomes.