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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 7, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

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Published on: July 3, 2020

Characterising Heatwave Responses and Climate Driver Impacts Using Multicollinearity-Controlled Generalised Linear

Ramla Khan¹, Philip Wheeler¹, David Gowing¹

¹School of Earth, Environment and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA UK.

Earth Systems and Environment

|April 6, 2026

Summary

Climate change impacts tree health, with leaf temperature and moisture significantly affecting vegetation. Urban trees show different responses to climate variables compared to forest trees, necessitating tailored management strategies.

Keywords:

Climate variables Deciduous forest Heatwave events Multicollinearity Satellite data Spatial maps Time-lag Urban forestry

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Environmental Science
Remote Sensing

Background:

Climate change intensifies stressors on tree ecosystems globally.
Understanding climate variable impacts on vegetation health is crucial for conservation.
Urban heat islands and forest environments present distinct ecological conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the influence of key climate variables (leaf temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, moisture) on tree health.
To compare the responses of trees in a deciduous forest and an urban area to these climate variables.
To utilize satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of vegetation health.

Main Methods:

Analysis of satellite data (NDVI) from 2018-2023 for Aspley Heath forest and Milton Keynes urban area.
Application of Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) to assess climate variable effects.
Inclusion of time-lag analysis to understand immediate and delayed effects of leaf temperature.

Main Results:

Leaf temperature positively correlated with NDVI in both ecosystems, but with a weaker response in urban trees.
Wind speed negatively impacted NDVI, with stronger effects observed in urban areas.
Moisture availability was critical, showing a stronger positive association with NDVI in forest trees.
Surface pressure showed a positive association with vegetation health in both environments.
Leaf temperature exhibited both immediate and delayed negative effects on NDVI.

Conclusions:

Urban and forest trees exhibit differential resilience to climate variables, influenced by factors like the urban heat island effect.
Moisture availability and leaf temperature are significant drivers of tree health, with varying sensitivities between ecosystems.
Findings underscore the need for targeted environmental management strategies to protect tree ecosystems from climate-induced stressors.