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Updated: Jun 30, 2026

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
A Nomogram Based on the Castelli Risk Index for Predicting Prognosis in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome
Yan Liu1, Ge Song1, Ying Zhang1,2,3
1Department of Cardiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical University, Chengde, China.
Background And Aims:
Composite lipid indices are closely related to the risk and poor prognosis of diseases. However, there are no studies on the prognostic value of Castelli's risk indices-I and II (CRI-I, CRI-II) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the association of CRI-I and CRI-II with the prognosis of patients with ACS undergoing PCI.
Patients And Methods:
A total of 1475 patients with ACS undergoing PCI were consecutively enrolled in this prospective cohort study from January 2016 to December 2018. The CRI-I and CRI-II were measured. The endpoints were MACEs, including all-cause mortality, requirement of rehospitalization for severe heart failure, recurrence of myocardial infarction, in-stent restenosis, and reaccept PCI. Follow-up data were collected via clinical visits or telephone calls at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months and annually thereafter.
Result:
Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that the risk of MACEs increased gradually with increasing CRI-I and CRI-II. The cumulative survival rate in the CRI-I ≥ 3.350 and CRI-II ≥ 1.697 groups was significantly lower than that in the CRI-I < 3.350 and CRI-II < 1.697 groups, respectively (log-rank tests: all p < 0.001). The nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance for the 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival probability.
Conclusions:
CRI-I ≥ 3.350 and CRI-II ≥ 1.697 could serve as independent predictors of MACEs in patients with ACS undergoing PCI.
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