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Epidemic thresholds across sexual behavior groups in the UK Biobank
Maxence Arutkin1, Alexandre Vallée2,3
1School of Chemistry, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Frontiers in Reproductive Health
|April 10, 2026
Summary
Sexual network structure significantly impacts sexually transmitted infection (STI) spread potential. Men who have sex with men (MSM) exhibit high susceptibility due to extreme partner number variation, necessitating targeted prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Network Science
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Sexual partnership heterogeneity is a key driver of sexually transmitted infection (STI) epidemic potential.
- Bisexual partnerships can bridge distinct sexual networks, facilitating disease spillover.
- The configuration model's critical bond transmissibility (Tc) quantifies network structure's impact on epidemic spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the relationship between lifetime number of sexual partners and STI epidemic potential across different sexual behavior groups.
- To estimate epidemic thresholds (Tc) for various strata within the UK Biobank cohort.
- To determine the conditions under which bisexual partnerships facilitate cross-group STI transmission.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of lifetime sexual partner data from 405,740 UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69).
- Stratification by sexual behavior: men who have sex with men (MSM), men who have sex with women (MSW), women who have sex with men (WSM), and women who have sex with women (WSW).
- Fitting heavy-tail distribution models to the upper tail of partner counts and estimating epidemic thresholds using network theory and next-generation matrices.
Main Results:
- Non-MSM groups (WSM, MSW, WSW) showed heavy but finite tails with strictly positive epidemic thresholds.
- Men who have sex with men (MSM) exhibited extreme right-tail heterogeneity, resulting in a near-zero threshold (Tc ≈ 3x10^-4), indicating high structural susceptibility.
- Modest cross-group mixing (5-7%) via bisexual partnerships can sustain transmission even with within-group controls.
Conclusions:
- Significant differences in sexual network tail structure exist across sexual behavior groups, leading to varying epidemic thresholds.
- Targeted, tail-sensitive STI prevention strategies are crucial.
- Explicit control of bridging pathways, particularly those involving bisexual partnerships, is necessary to curb STI spread.
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