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Updated: Apr 15, 2026
10:49
Laboratory-determined Phosphorus Flux from Lake Sediments as a Measure of Internal Phosphorus Loading
Published on: March 6, 2014
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Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Inputs and Future Sustainability Solutions
Wei Pei1, Hongjun Zhao1, Ji Han2
1Beijing Key Lab for Source Control Technology of Water Pollution, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
Environmental Science & Technology
|April 13, 2026
Summary
Global phosphorus pollution is rising due to fertilizer and food inputs, driven by urban density and GDP. Future projections show increased inputs under certain pathways, highlighting the need for better nutrient management and recycling.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Nutrient Management
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Background:
- Anthropogenic phosphorus inputs are critical for global nutrient management and sustainability.
- Historical trends in phosphorus inputs require detailed assessment for effective environmental strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze global anthropogenic phosphorus input trends from 1961-2020 using the Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Input (NAPI) model.
- To identify key drivers of NAPI increase and project future trends through 2100 using a random forest model.
- To evaluate future NAPI under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
Main Methods:
- Application of the Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Input (NAPI) model for trend analysis.
- Utilizing a random forest (RF) model for driver identification and future projections.
- Employing Monte Carlo analysis for uncertainty quantification and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) for driver importance.
Main Results:
- Global NAPI increased 1.4-fold, primarily driven by fertilizer (50.0%) and food/feed inputs (47.8%).
- Asia and Europe contribute significantly to global NAPI (62.2%).
- Urban population density and GDP were identified as primary drivers of NAPI increase.
- Future NAPI projections indicate higher inputs under SSP2 (20.2%) and SSP3 (39.3%) compared to SSP1.
Conclusions:
- Optimizing nutrient management and enhancing phosphorus cycling are essential for reducing global phosphorus pollution.
- Improving phosphorus use efficiency through strategies like recycling from manure and food waste is crucial.
- Policy interventions considering socioeconomic pathways are necessary to mitigate future phosphorus input increases.
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