Cardiometabolic Mortality and Health System Expansion in Kuwait (2010-2022): A National Time-Series Analysis

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Health Services Research

Background:

• Cardiometabolic diseases are a major global cause of early death.
• Longitudinal mortality patterns in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) settings are not well understood.
• This study analyzes cardiometabolic mortality trends in Kuwait (2010-2022) alongside health system metrics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To characterize national trends in cardiometabolic mortality in Kuwait.
• To examine the relationship between mortality trends and health system financing, capacity, and utilization.
• To identify specific drivers of cardiometabolic mortality, including diabetes and ischaemic heart disease.

Main Methods:

• Ecological time-series analysis of Ministry of Health administrative data (2010-2022).
• Inclusion of mortality, cardiac care unit (CCU) capacity and discharges, cardiovascular procedures, and expenditure.
• Ordinary least squares regression used to estimate annual trends, with pre-COVID models (2010-2019) to differentiate effects.

Main Results:

• All-cause deaths increased significantly (5448 in 2010 to 8041 in 2022).
• Diabetes mortality (counts and rates) showed significant progressive increases, becoming a prominent driver.
• Ischaemic heart disease death counts rose, while hypertensive mortality declined; health system capacity (MOH expenditure, CCU metrics) expanded significantly.

Conclusions:

• Kuwait experienced rising cardiometabolic mortality, notably from diabetes, concurrent with substantial health system expansion.
• Tertiary care capacity growth alone is insufficient to counteract underlying epidemiological pressures.
• Urgent focus on upstream prevention, diabetes surveillance, and metabolic risk management is vital for sustainable non-communicable disease policy.