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Systemic Risk-Informed Bi-Level Optimization for Resource Trade-Offs in the Water-Energy-Food-Carbon Nexus.

Shiqi Tan1,2, Yuezhe Zhang1, Liming Yao1,3,4

  • 1Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|April 14, 2026
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Systemic risks in the water-energy-food-carbon nexus threaten river basins. Risk-informed, adaptive strategies are crucial for balancing resource allocation, equity, and resilience in complex socio-environmental systems.

Keywords:
bi‐level multi‐objective optimizationresource allocation and trade‐offssystemic risk assessmentwater rights tradingwater‐energy‐food‐carbon nexus

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Resource Management
  • Systems Engineering

Background:

  • Major river basins face systemic risks from climate change, economic pressures, and ecological degradation.
  • The water-energy-food-carbon (WEFC) nexus highlights interconnected resource challenges.
  • Assessing and managing these risks is critical for regional resilience.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a bi-level optimization and risk-informed assessment framework for the Yellow River Basin (YRB).
  • To integrate multidimensional risk and equity metrics into resource allocation and policy design.
  • To evaluate divergent outcomes of different governance pathways on WEFC nexus resilience.

Main Methods:

  • Bi-level optimization framework development.
  • Risk-informed assessment integrating equity and systemic vulnerability metrics.
  • Simulation of five distinct scenarios (baseline, climate change, sustainable development, economic priority, technology innovation).

Main Results:

  • Technology and market-driven scenarios boost economic output but increase spatial inequalities and systemic risk.
  • Sustainable development pathways reduce equity gaps and rebalance resources but may cause local water stress or emissions.
  • No single scenario optimizes all objectives; adaptive strategies are key.

Conclusions:

  • Integrating risk and equity into WEFC nexus management is essential for robust responses to compounding shocks.
  • Targeted water rights trading and ecological safeguards can buffer regional vulnerabilities.
  • Context-specific, adaptive strategies enhance overall system resilience in complex socio-environmental systems.