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Increased shallower tropical cyclones under extreme warm climates
Tingyu Zhang1,2, Tianjun Zhou3,4, Zhun Guo1
1State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature Communications
|April 28, 2026
Summary
Under extreme warming, shallow tropical cyclones (TCs) become more common, increasing flood risks. These shallower TCs, with lower troposphere-focused updrafts, were prevalent during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Paleoclimatology
Background:
- Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose significant threats, with their intensity and rainfall changes well-studied.
- However, alterations in TC vertical structure under warming climates remain poorly understood, despite their importance for hazard assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the changes in the vertical structure of tropical cyclones under extreme warm climate conditions.
- To compare the prevalence of shallow versus deep tropical cyclones during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) and present day.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of simulated tropical cyclone structures under various climate scenarios.
- Comparison of cyclone characteristics between the EECO and present-day conditions.
Main Results:
- A significant increase in the proportion of shallow cyclones observed under extreme warm climates.
- Shallow cyclones, characterized by lower troposphere-confined updrafts, were more prevalent than deep cyclones during the EECO.
- This shift is attributed to enhanced ventilation and increased static stability.
Conclusions:
- The findings indicate a shift towards shallower tropical cyclones in extreme warm climates.
- Despite weaker winds, shallower cyclones contribute significantly to extreme rainfall, necessitating a reassessment of flood risks.
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