Analysis of the Risk Factors for Short-Term Outcomes in Acute Small Bowel Obstruction: A Retrospective Study

Area of Science:

• Gastroenterology
• Surgical Outcomes Research
• Predictive Modeling

Background:

• Acute small bowel obstruction (ASBO) has high readmission rates and severe postoperative complications, impacting patient quality of life.
• There is a critical need for risk-scoring models to evaluate short-term outcomes in ASBO patients.

Purpose of the Study:

• To construct predictive models for length of stay (LOS) and length of short-term recurrence (LOR) in ASBO patients.
• To identify key risk factors associated with LOS and LOR in ASBO.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of 278 patients with complete ASBO was analyzed.
• Cox proportional hazards regression was used to build predictive models for LOS and LOR.
• Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) assessed model performance.

Main Results:

• Risk factors for LOS included longer disease duration, low albumin, high lumen diameter, low chlorine, and operation.
• High calcium levels were an independent risk factor for LOR.
• The risk-scoring model for LOS (RS_LOS) showed good predictive performance (AUC = 0.859), with a significantly higher severe adverse event rate in the high-risk group (17.1% vs. 1.4%).
• The risk-scoring model for LOR (RS_LOR) also demonstrated satisfactory performance (AUC = 0.802), with a higher recurrence rate in the high-risk group (14.3% vs. 3.4%).

Conclusions:

• Developed risk-scoring models for LOS and LOR provide a comprehensive evaluation of short-term outcomes for ASBO.
• These models can aid in stratifying patients and managing risks associated with ASBO treatment.