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Brief Report: Are Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Apprehensions a Reliable Proxy for Undocumented Migration? New
1Department of Sociology, Population Research Center, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States.
Population Research and Policy Review
|May 12, 2026
Summary
United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) apprehension data remains a valid indicator of undocumented migration trends. This study confirms its reliability by comparing it with census and migration estimates.
Area of Science:
- Migration Studies
- Border Security Analytics
- Demography
Background:
- United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) apprehension data has been a key proxy for undocumented migration.
- Previous validity assessments of CBP data were conducted in 1995.
- Changes in migrant demographics and border crossing patterns necessitate re-evaluation of data validity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To update the validity assessment of CBP apprehension data as a proxy for undocumented migration.
- To analyze the alignment of CBP data with independent migration estimates.
- To determine the continued relevance of apprehension data for migration trend analysis.
Main Methods:
- Utilized two independent data sources: the 2018 Guatemalan Census and Center for Migration Studies (CMS) estimates.
- Conducted descriptive and regression analyses to compare data sources.
- Examined trends at both national and subnational levels.
Main Results:
- A strong alignment was found between CBP apprehension data, Guatemalan Census household migration reports, and CMS estimated undocumented entries.
- CBP apprehension data demonstrated reliability as an indicator of undocumented migration trends.
- The analysis confirmed data validity for the period studied.
Conclusions:
- CBP apprehension data continues to be a relevant and reliable indicator of undocumented migration.
- Regular empirical updates are essential to track evolving migration dynamics.
- Findings support the continued use of apprehension data in migration research and policy.
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